In part one of this article I looked at various collecting categories that appear to be losing steam as we head into 2016. While I am sure there are some surprises on that particular list that raise the eyebrows of casual enthusiasts in the trade, I am pleased to inform my readers that this article looks at what collecting categories have been experiencing exponential growth as we head into the new year. In an upcoming article, I plan to address the changing antiques and collectibles marketplace in greater detail and what these changes mean to collectors, dealers, and auctioneers. Auctioneers especially need to start adjusting to these changing market dynamics.
Listed below are the top five collecting categories that experienced exponential growth in 2015 and are poised for massive success in 2016. As noted in previous discussions, this analysis is based on my own opinions and observations. You are welcome to disagree, but please do so at your own risk. Now onto the list!
5. Vintage coin-operated machines of all types. Blame it on the "American Pickers" television show. Blame it on entertainment machine manufacturers who no longer see a valid business in manufacturing arcade and pinball games. Regardless, all types of vintage and antique coin operated games are experiencing increased growth and demand. The two most popular categories appear to be vintage and antique gambling devices and vintage pinball machines made after 1975. Collectors are urged to use caution with vintage video games as these are not experiencing the same growth as antique slot machines and vintage pinball games. This is due to the fact that unlike pinball and slot machines, arcade video games are easily emulated on more powerful home computers and video game consoles. There is absolutely no reason to own a popular arcade video game that can easily be played in full on a home video game console, computer, or smart phone. The real money is in entertainment devices that cannot easily be replicated on another device. Both pinball and slot machines enjoy this luxury and continue to experience moderate growth.
4. Vintage advertising and related collectibles. Ironically, I place the blame on "American Pickers" for helping to contribute to this phenomenon. This collecting category proves the theory that younger collectors collect what they know. What can be more prominent throughout an individual's youth than that of Coca-Cola and Pepsi? Soda advertising based collectibles and advertising is making a huge comeback. What is even more surprising in this growth category is how much collectors are willing to pay for more recent advertising based on other popular collecting categories. Prices such as $500 to $1,500 for an original Nintendo advertising sign from 1989? Check. A vintage Nintendo 'Super Mario' statue for $700? Check. The growth of this collecting field has yet to reach its full potential and when video game and Lego collectors begin looking for that one-of-kind piece to accent their game rooms and collecting dens, this category is going to explode even further into the mainstream.
3. Vintage toys and action figures from the 70s, 80s, and 90s. Forget your Star Wars figures made after 1990. They were overproduced and hoarded en masse. The real money is in vintage toys from the 70s and 80s and new properties like Jurassic Park and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles that graced store shelves in the early 1990s. Vintage Star Wars toys from the original Kenner toy line have seen exponential growth. The average cost of an original 12-back Star Wars action figure mint on its card from the 1970s has literally tripled in price from just six years ago and is still increasing! Expect massive growth in all the popular toy lines from these eras. Auctioneers take note as younger collectors are actively buying mint and factory fresh toys from this time period and they are also looking for deals.
2. Nintendo video games and systems from all eras. This is one of the greatest success stories in modern day collecting. While it is true that well over 95 percent of all video games will never be worth more than their original retail price; that other 5 percent of the market more than makes up for it. Games that could easily be obtained for vintage Nintendo systems back in the mid-1990s for just a few dollars are now achieving three to four figures at auction. Unfortunately, speculators have entered this market in droves and new collectors are advised to only buy tired and true collectibles and avoid speculation whenever possible. Ever increasing prices is leading to a rise in investors and speculators which is actually having an adverse affect on this market. Hint to collectors: focus on Nintendo only. Most of the games and systems released by other manufacturers are niche collectibles and lack the staying power of Nintendo and its collection of popular video game franchises that are still going strong today! Remember that today's classics are tomorrow's treasures!
1. Licensed Lego factory sealed sets and minifigures. You only need to know three words about this market that should give new collectors and investors caution. Those words are speculation, speculation, and mass speculation. Lego investing became a buzzword created by the media in 2015. The year 2016 is the year of unknowns. Will the Lego secondary market be able to survive the glut of new investors, collectors, and hoarders that are coming into the market and hoarding factory sealed sets for when they go out of production? Will Lego continue to cannibalize these resellers by re-releasing some of the most popular sets in the company's history? Time will tell, but as of right now both the Lego Star Wars and Lego Super Heroes lines are on fire with prices increasing across the board. Hint to investors: Focus on mint and factory sealed exclusive sets that retail for hundreds of dollars. Lego makes fewer of these sets and they experience the most growth after being retired. Avoid most of the non-licensed themes created solely by Lego themselves. They lack the multitude of collectors that both the Star Wars and Super Heroes lines attract.
These are my picks for the top five collecting categories that are poised to experience the most growth in 2016. If 2015 was any indication, it's going to be an exciting year!